Monday, May 2, 2011

Patton's: "How did I do?"

By Patton Richard

The NFL Draft has come and gone, and now it's time to analyze the picks and the mocks. So, how did I do? There are multiple ways to judge this, and everyone has their own criteria. One popular method is to go by direct hits (I'm saying player taken by correct team or correct spot: Cam Newton to Carolina, AJ Green to Cincinnati, Patrick Peterson to Arizona, Julio Jones to Atlanta, Tyron Smith to Dallas, Blaine Gabbert #10, Phil Taylor #21, James Carpenter to Seattle, Andy Dalton to Cincinnati, Stefen Wisniewski to Oakland, Colts taking Ben Ijalana) which means I had 11. That is a very strong number for a 2 round draft. In a very good mock you can expect 10.

Then there's the: how many correct in each round tally: 1st: 28/32 2nd: 17/32. A "good" draft is getting 26 in the first round and 20 in the 2nd. I hit 28 and 17. I would say that means my mock was "good".

Then there's my favorite way of doing it, label what I thought each team was going to take in the first 2 rounds, and then what did they actually take. What I said they'd take is listed first, what they actually took is in parenthesis.
Carolina: QB (QB: 1/1)
Denver: DT, OLB, DE (OLB, S, G: 1/3)
Buffalo: CB, QB (DT, CB: 1/2)
Cincinnati: WR, QB (WR, QB: 2/2)
Arizona: LB, WR (CB, RB: 0/2)
Cleveland: WR, OLB/DE (DT, OLB/DE, WR: 2/2)
San Francisco: QB, DT (DE, QB: 1/2)
Tennessee: DT, QB (QB, LB: 1/2)
Dallas: OT, CB (OT, LB: 1/2)
Washington: QB, OG (DE, DE: 0/2)
Houston: DE, CB/S (DE, LB, CB: 2/2)
Minnesota: C, WR (QB, TE: 0/2)
Detroit: CB, LB (DT, WR, RB: 0/2)
St Louis: DT, WR (DE, TE: 0/2)
Miami: DE (OG/C, RB: 0/2)
Jacksonville: CB, QB (QB: 1/1)
New England: DE, OG, RB, LB (OT, CB, RB: 1/3)
San Diego: DE, WR, CB (DT, CB, OLB: 1/3)
New York Giants: OT, RB (CB, DT: 0/2)
Tampa Bay: DE, S (DE, DE: 1/2)
Kansas City: DT, LB (WR, G: 0/2)
Indianapolis: OT, OT (OT, OT: 2/2)
Philadephia: DE, LB (OG, S: 0/2)
New Oreleans: OT, DT (DE, RB: 0/2)
Seattle: RB, OT (OT, OG: 1/2)
Baltimore: CB, DE (CB, WR: 1/2)
Atlanta: TE, WR (WR: 1/1)
Chicago: OT, DT (OT, DT: 2/2)
New York Jets: DT (DE: 0/1)
Pittsburgh: DE, CB (DE, OT: 1/2)
Green Bay: DE, DT (OT, WR: 0/2)
Oakland: C (C: 1/1)

Overall: 25/62 With no previous free agency this number feels small, but I'd put it up against what everyone else has in the business.

Final Thoughts: Mocks are difficult to project (due to trades and everything else), however releasing my mock a few days before the draft (opposed to a few hours before) also makes it more difficult to do well on the metrics. It seemed to me that my mock turned out between slightly above average to very good.

My next piece for tomorrow: The "what I would have done" at each of the Seahawks picks. And the first half of my breakdowns.

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